Saturday, June 7, 2008

unemployment report

is it worth all the hype it created in the market - stock market decline, dollar slide?
jobless rate increase by 0.5% occurred 16 times in past, without similar market consequences. According to a JP Morgan analyst, this could just be an 'abberration' : Influx of fresh graduates from college added to the adversity of the present day condition in job market, hence showing a bleaker than normal picture on unemployment. This may not be a permanent condition.

Monday, June 2, 2008

Federal assistance in housing and financial markets


To avoid foreclosures 2 proposals have been made regarding ARMs by the senators Barney Frank and Chris Dodd (Frank-Dodd Bill).The plan is to resize and reset:
- FHA secure (loan modification): here, the loans exceeding 90% LTV will have their portion of debt above 90% ‘forgiven’ by the bondholders in order to qualify for the FHA protection in case of mortgage default. For instance, if the LTV is 100%, 10% of the loan is forgiven to reach the desired mark. Once the bond reaches the 90% LTV mark, they are insured and pooled as GNMA loans
- Fast Track program (refinancing): Convert ARMs to fixed rate – interest rate freeze for the first 5yrs

Coverage & Eligibility
These proposals can help 1-2m borrowers. It lowers both outstanding balance and monthly payments, and could help slow the decline in house prices.
-Applied to current or delinquent loans, but borrower should be at a risk of defaulting: LTV > 90%
-Loans on owner occupied properties originated between 2005-07, and free of all other liens (no home equity borrowers then?)
-Borrowers with debt-income greater than 40%
-Loan size limited to regional FHA loan limits

Effects
Initial loss to bond holders because of the upfront cost of forgiving portion of loan value exceeding 90% of property value. The lower tranches in CDOs (equity tranche) will get wiped out in this case. Long term risk to FHA in insuring sub prime debt.
Depending on the acceptance of this plan, it can strategically transfer the risk of sub-prime and Alt-A debt to investors (through forgiveness) and government (loan insurance)
- Rise in property value as foreclosures decrease
- Boost the value of MBS and CDO consisting of mortgages protected against default under FHA Secure - for instance if that particular pool of mortgages are based on relatively lower LTV, there can’t be that great of an impact. This crisis has presented an great opportunity to gain for people who have the resources to identify those mortgages which are trading at unjustified prices.
- Rise in repo activity (more secured assets available as collateral), and increase in loans drawn due to stabilization of property value. In short, ease in credit availability
- Hedge funds that buy MBS and CDOs at fire sale prices today might benefit largely from the passing of the Frank-Dodd bill which establishes default protection of risky borrowers who fit the eligibility criteria. The default probability of sub-prime and Alt-A, which is exaggerated by foreclosures, will reduce. Even in spite of this if the default occurs, the government under FHA Secure becomes liable to the higher tranche bond holders

Profiting from Water Infrastructure: How Water Treatment is a Hot Investment Area

The acute strain on water supply is accountable to its versatile use in producing food, hydroelectricity, industrial goods and innumerable other areas ranging from paper making to refining oil. Most of the water used comes from land not oceans, which is only 3% of the total available. However, it’s not the quantity of water that is diminishing, it is the quality. Pollution is severely affecting the usability of water. Another issue is the distribution of water – some regions suffer floods, and some witness droughts. This makes it an accumulation of local problems, not a global problem – there has never been a global drought. Places with aquifers (such as India) for instance face even higher problem of drought as the farmers rely primarily on this source. Another rising issue is growth in ‘Chindia’. Political and economic developments in china for instance increased average consumption from 2100cal in 1977 to 2250cal in 1978, and this has been climbing ever since. Chindia’s daily caloric intake is expected to increase by 1.8 trillion calories, assuming constant population. Even the nature of food consumed impacts change in water usage – water needed per calorie of plant (274cc) and per calorie of meat (2740cc).

The good news is that technology can solve our woes by purifying and relocating water. We could desalinate water using distillation and reverse osmosis, or transport drinking water through the Mediterranean Sea. But for this we require energy – even the most efficient desalination process adds about 9000kWh/yr, just about 15% less energy than consumed by the typical US household! The scarcity of water in short can be viewed as an extended result of scarcity of energy required to clean or transport water – energy and water supply are inextricably linked. Majority of desalination capacity and requirement is then in the Middle East – oil rich and short of fresh water. Energy crunch is magnified by the projected increase in energy consumption in Chindia – when compared to OECD countries, there’s potential for almost 83-95% growth in energy consumption. For the present, Wind energy seems to be the most sensible option until controlled fusion is developed.

Consequences and solution
Currently 54% of the world’s fresh water is being used in a given year, but if population grows at 77m a year as forecasted, 90% of the world’s fresh water will be in use by 2025. Macro solutions to water crises – widespread desalination and transportation – are given serious thought. Most straightforward way of improving water management is to replace and build new pipes, pumps, filters, etc. 34% of the Chinese and 21% of Indians are yet to see improved water source - pipes and faucets, etc. Chinese government is scheduled to spend $125bn over next 5yrs to improve Chinese water facilities.
In US on the other hand, the problem is not lack of infrastructure but that of quality. Money spent on fixing and replacing leaky pipes can reduce the current leakage of water, which is almost 20%. An innovation in water management is the closed-loop system where water used in industries is treated and reused, instead of discarded. Contractors managing this have potential to make hefty profits. In short both water filtration and the infrastructure supporting it (pipes, pumps, valves, etc.) look enticing to investors.

Companies positioned to benefit
Water Watts Technologies (WTS)
Layne Christensen Company (LAYN)
Tetra Tech (TTEK)
ITT Industries (ITT)
Aqua America (WTR)
Veolia Environment (VE)